World Cup 2022: who is the favorite to win the tournament?
As the teams enter the field to dispute the round of 16 of the FIFA World Cup, expectations grow about who will win the title of world champion in Qatar this year.
After a group stage marked by underdogs, does anyone dare to make any predictions?
Some mathematical models, yes.
In the graph below, you can see the predictions of Opta — a model from a British sports data analysis company based on artificial intelligence that calculates the probability of each team winning the tournament.
By Opta's calculations, Brazil appears as a favorite since the beginning of the Cup - but shot ahead of the others after beating South Korea by 4-1 and advancing to the quarterfinals.
Although its favoritism has fluctuated a little throughout the tournament, the Brazilian team now has a 27.6% chance of taking home the sixth championship, as suggested by the updated data of the computational model on December 6th.
Argentina, which emerges as the second favourite, appears with a 17.4% chance of lifting the trophy for the third time on December 18th.
The team of the player Lionel Messi, who had a mere 6.6% chance of winning the championship after losing the first match to Saudi Arabia by 2 x 1, showed a significant recovery — which continues, despite the slight drop in the favoritism recorded in recent days.
France currently appears as the third favorite, with a 14.7% chance of being champion, followed by the following teams: England (12.8%), Holland (9%), Spain (8.3%), Portugal (5 .4%), Croatia (2.9%), Switzerland (1.1%) and Morocco (0.9%).
How the forecast is made
The calculations above were made by Opta, a prediction model based on artificial intelligence from Stats Perform, a sports technology company specializing in data and artificial intelligence.
To arrive at these predictions, the company claims that the model estimates the probability of each outcome of the matches - victory, draw or defeat -, using the odds of the betting market and the ranking of the teams in Stats Perform.
"The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances," explains Jamie Kemp, football data editor at Opta, in an article published on BBC Sports.
"The model then considers the strength of the opponent and the difficulty ahead until the final, using the probabilities of the outcome of the matches, taking into account the composition of the groups and the classification for the knockout stages", he adds.
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